Divergence · Will Trump be impeached by Dec 31, 2026? · By Mira Espinoza · Polling desk

55% want the House to impeach Trump. The market gives it 13%.

Verasight’s April poll of 1,514 US adults shows 55% want the House to impeach Donald Trump. Polymarket’s $709K book gives it a 13% chance of actually happening by Dec 31. The 42-point gap between what the room wants and what the market expects is the loudest signal of the spring.

The room vs the market

Sub-sample Wants impeachment Opposes Unsure
All US adults (n=1,514)55%37%8%
Independents50%28%22%
Trump 2024 voters21%——
Polymarket (will it happen by Dec 31?)13%87%—

Verasight poll fielded for Strength In Numbers, April 10–14, 2026, n=1,514 US adults. Polymarket market: will-trump-be-impeached-by-december-31-2026, $709,200 total volume since Jul 25, 2025. Resolves Dec 31, 2026.

Where the gap actually lives

Two thirds of the room and half of independents want this. One in five Trump 2024 voters say impeach — not the kind of number that gets ignored in a normal political environment. And yet a quarter of a million dollars sitting on Polymarket says it does not happen.

The gap is not really between the public and the market. The gap is between what voters want (a deliberative question, asked of a representative sample) and what the market expects an institution to deliver (a forecasting question, priced by a self-selected pool of bettors who pay attention to House math). Both numbers are real. They answer different questions.

The institution in question is the 119th Congress, with a Republican-controlled House. The Polymarket bettors have priced the structural reality: this Speaker does not call this vote, and even if a single Republican defection moved the math, a Senate trial requires sixty-seven votes that nobody pretends are sittable. The market is pricing process, not desire.

Why this gap is worth tracking

Because the gap moves the public reads less often than the gap moves the market. A poll number on impeachment shifted slightly in either direction across the spring will not change the Polymarket book by much — the bettors are pricing the procedural reality, not the popular one. The book moves on news, not on sentiment. Specifically: a Republican-defection signal, a scheduling change in the House, a procedural motion that gets a floor vote.

This is the reverse of the Day 3 situation on the Democratic primary, where Polymarket was pricing one number (Newsom 25, Harris 8) and Echelon Insights was reading another (Harris 22, Newsom 21). There the gap was about a contested forecast. Here the gap is about the chasm between democratic preference and parliamentary procedure.

The wry observation

Half the country wants the House to impeach. The House does not work for half the country today — it works for whichever caucus runs the Rules Committee. Polymarket bettors are pricing the second sentence, not the first.

What would change the picture

I’d update on this if any of three things happen in the next two months: a named House Republican publicly endorses an impeachment inquiry; the Polymarket book closes at $1M+ volume with the price holding at or below 15% (signals the bettors are confident); or a second named pollster confirms the 55% support number with similar Independent and Republican-defection splits. Without one of those, the 42-point gap is fixed scenery for the rest of 2026.

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