Calibration · Launch market: 2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination · By Mira Espinoza · Polling desk

Day 1: Money said Newsom 27%. The room said 28%.

DissMarket’s launch market put 402 X voters on the same 2028 Democratic primary question Polymarket prices. The result: alignment, not divergence. Inside one or two points across the named field.

The market vs the room

Candidate Polymarket (Apr 29) DissMarket X poll (n=402, 24h) Gap
Gavin Newsom27%28%−1 pt
AOC8.6%10%−1.4 pts
Kamala Harris7.5%9%−1.5 pts
Someone else~57%53%+4 pts

Polymarket prices captured 2026-04-29. Polymarket event total volume at capture: $1.11B. DissMarket X poll: native poll on @DissMarket, 24-hour close, 4 options, 99K impressions, 28 replies, 12 RTs, 29 likes, n=402 votes. No brigading observed.

The headline finding

Alignment, not divergence. Public and money calibrated within 1–2 points on every named candidate. The only material gap was on the residual “someone else” bucket — money 57%, public 53%, a 4-point spread.

That’s a useful Day 1 finding for DissMarket’s thesis. The pitch is that public opinion and prediction-market prices measure different things and will sometimes diverge in newsworthy ways. The first market said: in this field, on this day, they don’t. Worth knowing. Worth publishing.

The DissMarket take

When the market and the room agree, that is the story. We’ll publish the alignment days the same way we publish the divergence days.

Sources