Methodology

What DissMarket measures

DissMarket measures unweighted public opinion on the same questions that Polymarket and other prediction markets price with capital. Where prediction markets answer “how would a rational bettor risk money on this outcome?”, DissMarket answers “what does the public believe will happen?”

These are different signals. Markets aggregate the views of people willing to put capital at risk — a small, often non-representative population. DissMarket aggregates the views of a much larger and more demographically varied population, weighted only by participation, not by spend.

We do not claim our numbers are better predictions than market prices. We claim they are a different and complementary signal.

What we publish

Each day on X (and weekly in our newsletter), we publish:

• The current Polymarket price for a given market.
• The current DissMarket public opinion percentage for the same question.
• The divergence — the absolute gap between the two — and how it has changed over time.

How we collect public opinion

Phase 1 (current — X polls)

• We run native X polls on questions that mirror live Polymarket markets.
• Polls are open for a fixed window (typically 24 hours).
• The DissMarket number reported is the percentage of poll respondents selecting each outcome.

Known limitations of Phase 1:

• X polls have no demographic data and no verification of respondents.
• The respondent pool is self-selected from DissMarket’s followers, which skews to the followers’ demographic.
• We treat Phase 1 numbers as directional, not statistically representative, and label them accordingly.

Phase 2 (planned — verified panel)

• A registered panel with email or phone verification.
• Demographic capture (age range, US state, party identification, education) on signup.
• Survey-weighted aggregation to a representative US adult universe, using public Census and voter-file benchmarks.
• This phase produces statistically defensible numbers suitable for citation in news reporting.

Phase 3 (planned — calibration-weighted aggregation)

• Each registered user accumulates a public calibration score based on how their predictions on resolved markets compare to outcomes.
• Aggregate signals are produced in three flavours: raw, demographically-weighted, and calibration-weighted.
• Calibration-weighted aggregates are intended for use cases where prediction quality (not representativeness) is the goal — e.g. quant alpha signals.

How we mirror Polymarket markets

• We read Polymarket prices via their public API and on-site UI.
• We rephrase market questions for plain-English voters, preserving the resolution criteria verbatim.
• Resolution criteria are linked back to the underlying Polymarket market in every published chart.
• When Polymarket has multiple related markets (e.g. several Senate seats), we publish them as a panel, not as a single index — to preserve interpretability.

What our data is not

• It is not a forecast. Public opinion is famously poor at predicting election outcomes; it is much better at revealing narrative — what people believe is happening.
• It is not a poll in the YouGov sense. Phase 1 numbers are not weighted to a representative voter universe.
• It is not a betting market. No money or virtual currency changes hands. There is nothing to “win” by voting.

Our partisanship policy

DissMarket is a politically neutral organisation. We:

• Do not endorse candidates, parties, or policies.
• Do not cherry-pick divergences for narrative effect — when capital is right and the public is wrong, we publish it the same way we publish the reverse.
• Disclose when our user base is skewed in ways that would distort results, and report demographically-weighted alternatives where possible.
• Welcome scrutiny — our raw poll counts and Polymarket reference timestamps are available on request.

Citation guidance

If you cite DissMarket data in reporting, please:

• Link to the specific dated post or newsletter, not just the homepage.
• Note which phase the data is from (Phase 1 = X poll, Phase 2 = verified panel, etc.).
• Include the divergence framing — the gap between markets and public is the story, not either number alone.
• Email press@dissmarket.com for raw counts, methodology questions, or higher-resolution charts.

Contact

• Press & data licensing: press@dissmarket.com
• General: hello@dissmarket.com
• X: @DissMarket