Markets

Public opinion vs prediction-market prices on the same questions. Updated as we publish.

• 2026-05-12 · Today

  55% want the House to impeach Trump. The market gives it 13%.

  Verasight’s April poll of 1,514 US adults shows 55% want the House to impeach Donald Trump. Polymarket’s $709K book gives it a 13% chance by Dec 31. The 42-point gap between what voters want and what Washington will deliver. By Mira Espinoza, Polling desk.

• 2026-05-09 · Day 4

  Polymarket has House Dems at 84c. That’s rich.

  Polymarket prices a Democratic House majority in November 2026 at 84%. Marist’s most recent generic ballot has Dems +10. A lead of that size has historically mapped to chamber-flip odds closer to 60-70%, not 84%. That’s the book trading rich. By Jay Donegan, Markets desk.

• 2026-05-07 · Day 3

  Newsom is priced 3× Harris. Voters say it’s a coin flip.

  Polymarket has Newsom 25% / Harris 8% on the 2028 Democratic nomination. The latest Echelon Insights poll has them tied — Harris 22%, Newsom 21%. One of these is mispriced. By Mira Espinoza, Polling desk.

• 2026-05-02 · Day 2

  A $463 market called Trump approval. Silver Bulletin agreed.

  A thin Polymarket weekly priced disapproval at 65%. Silver Bulletin’s aggregator had it at 58%. Two illiquid signals, one direction. By Jay Donegan, Markets desk.

• 2026-04-29 · Launch

  Day 1: Money said Newsom 27%. The room said 28%.

  Our launch market put 402 X voters on the same 2028 Democratic primary question Polymarket prices. The result: alignment, not divergence. Inside one or two points across the named field. By Mira Espinoza, Polling desk.